Scenario planning is a challenging and participative way for decision-makers to explore alternative future contexts. It is a powerful tool which can be used to test the robustness of today's strategy, develop better policies for the challenges that lie ahead and to increase an organisation's chances of success by understanding how to navigate future uncertainties.

Scenario planning at work 

Outsights uses Scenario planning to achieve varied objectives for clients, including: 

• Developing and refreshing strategies, so they are fit for the future;
• Developing early warning systems to detect impending change, allowing sufficient time to adjust strategy or tactics;
• Looking at how important drivers of change for the industry may combine and unfold to spot early opportunities;
• Reducing risk by testing strategies against alternative futures and avoiding costly investments that may be ill-matched to tomorrow's business environment;
• Resolving conflicts by bringing together diverse groups, to shape their own futures;
• Putting decision-makers together with topics and issues which they don't normally consider, helping them to make better informed decisions; and,
• Challenging accepted norms to make people think about the discontinuities, shocks and changes that are likely to affect them.

Outside-in thinking 

Outsights develops Scenarios using an "Outside-in" approach. This starts by exploring the critical drivers of change in the external world, then identifying what these drivers mean for the industry/sector and finally, with the "So what?" question at the top of the agenda, formulating action plans.

This highly collaborative approach allows clients to embed the thinking and create ownership of the Scenarios within the organisation - essential if full value is to be achieved. 

Scenarios in action

Scenario planning is traditionally much more qualitative than quantitative, though when the Scenario stories are developed they can often form the basis for more meaningful data-based projections. Unlike conventional forecasting, Scenario planning develops multiple alternative futures, often with a focus on what might happen as opposed to what should happen. Typically it involves:

• Identifying the external factors - drivers of change - which might shape the future of the subject under investigation, using the Outsights 21 Drivers for 21 Century^TM.
• Research and interviews to cover the blind spots.
• Highly interactive Scenario building workshops with decision makers, often with external expert involvement to bring in new perspectives and challenge the thinking.
• A rigorous process, often in workshop mode, to address the important "So what?" question by identifying and testing the strategic implications arising from the Scenarios.

Learning from the Future

A bird's eye view of Scenario planning in private and public sector organisations featuring interviews with leading figures in business, Government and practitioners in the field.

Irdeto: Facing the Future through Scenario Planning

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A concise article on Scenario planning, the process and the business case.