Following the formation of DIUS in 2007, Ministers commissioned Outsights through the Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre to develop a set of Scenarios to improve the robustness of existing policies and assist in the development of robust new policies.  

Assessing future uncertainty  

Outsights interviewed 18 Permanent Secretaries, conducted specialist futures research to produce 15 research papers about future uncertainty and helped develop the Scenarios through a series of short workshops with experts from the public and private sectors.  

The resulting Scenario matrix describes four possible Scenarios:

• Perpetual Motion
• Shaken Open
• Protective Collective
• Self-Service

Using Scenarios to test policy  

The Scenarios were then presented to DIUS Ministers and used to test policies and develop corporate plans for DIUS and other Government Departments.