A recurring theme at the EBRD Business Forum has been the extraordinary changes witnessed by the region since the fall of the Berlin Wall. But what about the future? What will the EBRD's countries of operations look like in another 18 years? This leading multilateral development bank worked with Outsights to take a long-term view of the future to decide upon the main challenges facing the region to 2025.

Achieving shared understanding of the future in a diverse region 

The EBRD Region covers 29 countries, from Albania to Ukraine, each with its own issues. In order to achieve a shared understanding and agreement on the most important external issues facing the region, the project began with a briefing and interactive poll of participants at the Annual Meeting in May 2006 to determine what they saw as the most important, worrisome, optimistic, recognized or unrecognized trends that could affect the region. 

After discussion and debate, over 150 business people, bankers, policymakers and NGOs representatives voted on a shortlist of key issues. Four issues were then selected by Outsights and the EBRD Board for further development into Scenarios: demography and migration, the environment, technology, and the influence of China.

Establishing future priorities 

The Scenarios were developed over an eight-month period with the EBRD Board and communicated throughout the Bank. At the following Annual Meeting in Kazan, Outsights presented the Scenarios and asked the audience about the region's future possibilities of success. They were globally optimistic about the future: a vote yielded an average score of 6.4 when participants were asked how successful they believed the region would be in 2025 (with 1= unsuccessful and 10 = extremely successful). Other votes showed that a big majority of audience members felt that meeting technological challenges was key for the region (average score of 7.9, with 10 = critically important); and that many doubted the preparedness of governments to meet their responsibilities (average score of 3.9 with 1 = not ready and 10 = fully prepared). 

After the voting, three panellists held a discussion about their hopes and fears for the region. Liqun Jin, Vice President of the Asian Development Bank, suggested that relations with his home country, China, could be "very positive if both sides cooperate".

EBRD Annual Meeting and Business Forum Report (2006)

Report on the Scenario Building Session conducted by Outsights for the EBRD in 2006 identifying drivers of change for the EBRD region.

EBRD Futures 2025

Report on the project “Futures of the EBRD Region 2025” conducted by Outsights in 2006-7, presented at the 2007 Annual Meeting in Russia. Identifies key drivers of change - people, environment, technology and China - and possible outcomes for the region.