A leading global professional services company with 14,000 associates around the world offering solutions in employee benefits, talent management, rewards, and risk and capital management, was taking stock of future developments in the Executive Compensation world, to make sure they were well positioned to meet future client needs. The organisation used the Scenario planning process to look at broad and deep factors that were going to shape change.

Drivers of change: trust and the economy

14 members of the top team across the organisation were interviewed about specific aspects of Executive Compensation and the more macro factors (economic, social, regulatory etc) which might shape change from the outside. Two strong drivers emerged: trust and the direction of the economy. The results were then analysed and further developed to create three Scenarios:

• low trust world with strong governance;
• freer, high trust world; and,
• a return of local rules and approaches as national markets take a more prominent approach. 

Using the Scenarios to prepare industry for change 

The Scenarios formed the basis for the internal strategic plans of the organisation. They were also presented at an industry-wide Pan European Conference in Paris, to provoke broader thought about how the future might develop. 

Outsights Partner Tim Bolderson presented the Scenarios, highlighting issues such as shifting values, trust, globalisation and governance. Four skeleton Scenarios were also developed tochallenge the delegates' thinking about how executives will be rewarded in the coming years, based on levels of trust and open or closed markets. What would happen to executive pay in the following worlds? 

Outsights re-visited this issue with a senior group of Government, industry, regulators and academia, using our recent research on the Sigma Scan and the Future of the Global Economy to 2030 to explore how much change is coming down the pipeline, and the options and Scenarios for which to start preparing.