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futures library
The Outsights On series reports the latest in our thinking about what’s driving the future. We also feature publications which use our work and which give insights into future thinking and its results.
All publications by Outsights are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales License.
Outsights On Healthcare Futures
The health sector has long held fast in times of boom and bust. But will today’s healthcare models stand up to tomorrow’s world? Rising costs, an Age of Austerity and new wave of health technologies can change the model to one that is radically different from today. Imagine a “virtual” hospital where only your information is processed and you are sent to the right place to suit your needs anywhere in the world. “Healthcare futures” - the first Outsights On for 2011 written by Consultant Alasdair Keith looks at how the situation may develop.
Globalisation: The View to 2025
The Great Recession has marked the end of an extremely globalised era. Whilst globalisation is not set to stop, the US is no longer going to predominate as China and other emerging economic powers assume greater influence in shaping the world. What will globalisation look like in 2025? Outsights Consultant Alasdair Keith examines how the five flows of globalisation – goods, capital, people, information and services – will change the future.
Future of the Global Economy to 2030 Presentation 2010
How will economic conditions shape the built environment of tomorrow? Using Outsights Scenarios for the Global Economy to 2030, Richard O’Brien challenged the BRE Group Annual Conference to think about how major uncertainties like the pace of innovation and the allocation of resources may change the future. 200 attendees voted on which Scenarios they most expected, and for which they were least prepared.
Future of Africa
We are pleased to introduce our latest publication: Africa’s future, by Outsights Associate and Director of the Royal African Society Richard Dowden, fresh on the heels of his widely acclaimed bestseller “Africa” (2009). Richard explores the big drivers of change for Africa: climate, demographics, China, connectivity and power – recurrent themes that have appeared in Outsights own work in Africa over the past decade, in the Future of Beer Markets, the Futures of Print and Digital Media - and particularly in the Scenarios for the Poorest to 2030 which still holds relevance and valuable insights today.
Outsights On the Future of Pharma
The pharmaceutical industry is at a hinge point. Its key drivers – intellectual property and scientific developments – and underlying business models are changing, fast. In our latest publication, Outsights Associate and pharma expert Robert Jones discusses possible future strategic directions for the industry. How can “big pharma” learn fast-adaptation and can the experience of other industries help?
End of Geography revisited
In this month's 'Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society', Richard O'Brien and Alasdair Keith review the idea first presented in Richard's bestselling book 'The End of Geography' (1992) - that geography is becoming increasingly less important in finance as a result of the revolution in ICTs and deregulation. Reviewing four Scenarios for the future of finance, it seems likely that the drive towards ‘the end’ will be slowed by the crisis, as the wisdom of allowing the marketplace to self-regulate is reconsidered.
2059: A Personal Future
To mark its 250th edition,The Annual Register has published a piece of informed speculation about how it - and the world - might be in 2059 when it publishes its 300th edition. The article is by Outsights Partner Richard O'Brien, who has been the Royal Economic Society's representative on the Annual Register Advisory Board since 1995.
Future Economy Scenarios
The economic crisis has cast uncertainty over every aspect of business. How do you plan for what comes next? Outsights has developed the Future Economy Scenarios framework - based on extensive research, one-to-one and group discussions in the City and across government - to assess how organisations are placed and to stress-test strategy. Here we outline the Scenarios: Bounce Back to Business, the Worst of all Worlds and Volatile Times.
Tomorrow's World Today: Outsights On the Challenges of Horizon Scanning
Writer Mark Snelling reviews the Sigma Scan programme (www.sigmascan.org) developed by Outsights and Ipsos MORI for the UK Government, and how it can lead to action. Features an interview with Sir David King, the UK Government's former Chief Scientist.
Learning from the Future
Outsights has worked with both private and public sector organisations over the past decade. In this article, freelance journalist Mark Snelling takes a bird's eye view of Scenario planning – interviewing leading figures in business and Government as well as practitioners to find out what they really think about this increasingly popular way of thinking.
Sigma Scan
A groundbreaking online database of future trends and drivers to 2050, created by Outsights for the UK Government's Horizon Scanning Centre. News of the Sigma Scan was published globally and in the UK in the Financial Times, The Guardian and The Independent, launched by Sir David King, the UK Government's former Chief Scientist, in 2006.
Tackling Obesity: Future Choices
The UK Government Foresight Directorate's leading edge enquiry into the Future of Obesity to 2050, featuring Scenarios on the context of tackling obesity and a set of policy responses developed by Outsights in collaboration with leading scientists and policy experts.
Outsights On Economic Uncertainties
Richard O'Brien selected six key areas of economic uncertainties in the global economy as we entered 2004 – deflation or inflation; the twin US deficits; capital flows and the dollar; the property bubble; the pensions challenge; and the future of Europe – with a note on two longer term areas of focus, trade and the BRICs.
Outsights On Change: Frameworks and Models
A review on the number of approaches to change, providing a framework for the various types of change models currently in use and ideas about the meta-level of change. This presentation-based article is designed as a basis for reviewing approaches and provides a way of thinking through the change task at hand.
The Future of Asian Trade with the UK
Gordon Brown set up the Asia Task Force to make practical recommendations on how to boost UK trade and investment with Asian markets. The article is based on workshops done by Outsights in five key Asian cities: Bangkok, Jakarta, New Delhi, Seoul and Hong Kong.
The Generation Game: How Scenario Planning can help HR
The leading European HR magazine, People Management, explores how Scenario planning can be used in developing people as well as preparing the organisation for the Future. Features Outsights Partner Tim Bolderson.
UK Government Futures
A wide survey of the role of futures thinking in Government is now available in its Foresight 2007 Annual Review. Outsights itself has now completed over 30 futures projects across government. Projects include the Future of Food and Tackling Obesities: Future Choices.
Scenarios for the Poorest
Outsights was retained by the UK's Department for International Development to develop a number of Scenarios for the Future of the Very Poorest, to stimulate new thinking and to look for ways in which the future can be changed. An implicit assumption behind the focus on the very poorest is that even if the Millennium Development Goals are reached by 2015, many of the poorest will miss out entirely or remain in serious poverty. A wide and varied group of 70 stakeholders from 10 countries participated in the project.
Future of the EBRD Region
Outsights worked with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development at its Annual Meetings in 2006 and 2007 to help them develop future Scenarios for the region. The focus was on demographics, technology, the environment and China, with technological competitiveness and environmental challenges as particularly critical to the region's future success. The EBRD was established in 1991 and helps build market economies and democracies in countries from central Europe to central Asia.
Outsights On the Five Flows of Globalisation
Alasdair Keith looks at the Future of Globalisation through its five flows - of goods, capital, people, information and services - and how any interruption of these flows might slow or reverse the onward path of globalisation.
The Future of the Global Economy to 2030
Four different paths for the future of the global economy in the midst of the present crisis – the State reasserting control over economic activity and citizens' lives; an economic slowdown caused by market failure; a society existing in stagflation, or a world where globalisation reverses and strong nationalistic sentiment dominates – created with input from experts in the banking, public, NGO and development sectors.
Irdeto: Facing the Future through Scenario Planning
A case study on the use of Scenario planning, focusing on the work Outsights has been doing with Irdeto, a leading innovator in the digital content protection industry. Based on interviews with Irdeto's leadership team, this article gives insights into the challenges of implementing futures thinking and provides concrete examples of how Scenarios have shaped the company's strategy, including a groundbreaking corporate move to establish dual headquarters in China and the Netherlands.
