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July 2008

The latest in our Outsights On series questions the conventional thinking about today's economic situation, and suggests several different - perhaps radical - future paths for the global economy. The Future of the Global Economy to 2030 uses the uncertainties of today's world - sustainability, people, technology, political models and stability and economic outcomes - to challenge current assumptions about the future.

The scenarios were written by Research Associate Alasdair Keith, Partner Richard O'Brien and Associate Michael Prest, and were developed with input from experts in business, the City, Government, academia and NGOs drawing from Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st CenturyTM research.

We're now conducting "Future of the Global Economy to 2030 Immersion Sessions" for organisations who would like to test or develop their strategy against these new scenarios. Please do contact richard@outsights.co.uk to discuss this further.

Outsights continues its extensive programme of work in support of the UK Government, as part of an ongoing iniative to broaden the use of futures thinking across Whitehall. The programme follows and uses the groundbreaking Sigma Scan, which we co-created with Ipsos MORI. Other publicly available strands of the work completed so far include:

Tackling Obesity: Future Choices to 2050
The Future of Asian Trade with the UK
Future of the Poorest to 2030.

Will gas supplies meet the demands of the Asian markets in the Future? Or will they remain dependent on fossil fuels? Outsights Associate David Ledesma was amongst the team of experts to substantially update the successful 2002 edition of Natural Gas in Asia - The Challenges of Growth in China, India, Japan and Korea, released on 5th June by the Oxford University Press.

David has over 20 years experience in the energy and utility sector and has worked and lived in Asia, the Middle East and Europe. He has worked on Leadership Development initiatives and futures thinking projects for the UK Government with Outsights.

Outsights and the National School of Government will be co-hosting a Summit for senior HR professionals on the future of learning and development over the next 20 years on 25th - 26th September, 2008.

The keynote speaker will be Professor Keith Grint of Cranfield University. Watch this space for the scenarios which will follow the Summit.

January 2008

'How scenario planning can help HR'

HR professionals are realising that future thinking is an increasingly useful tool in preparing middle managers for leadership, according to People Management, the magazine of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. The magazine featured Outsights Partner Tim Bolderson speaking about scenarios in the article The generation game in November 2007.

The generation game

Some of you have already received the first of the 21 Drivers email updates, please feel free to forward these to colleagues or contacts.

The 21 Drivers for the 21st Century is a future-orientated and provocative presentation on the 21 key forces shaping this century. It is ideal for testing assumptions of the Future and can be tailored for conferences and workshops. Do contact us if you would like to use it in your organisation or subscribe to the fortnightly email updates: drivers@outsights.co.uk.

21 Drivers for the 21st Century

As we head into 2008 there is uncertainty about how the global credit crunch will play out. Forecasters predict the “perfect economic storm”. But what about the long view?

Economic historian Angus Maddison anticipates a more optimistic long-term future. In Contours of the World Economy 1-2030, Maddison suggests that the world’s per capita income will rise by 80 percent from 2003-2030, a rate of growth experienced just once before during the "Golden Age" from 1950-73, this time driven by China and India.

What could spoil such prospects? The International Energy Agency’s 2007 World Energy Outlook estimates that global primary energy needs will grow by 55 percent to 2030 with developing countries contributing 74 percent, though the Chinese and Indians say it is unfair to blame them for rising resource prices. This could create a possible supply “crunch” as soon as 2015. Whether this will slow growth is unclear. The one certainty: energy remains a key driver for future economic growth.

15th - 17th April, 2008
ExCel London

Outsights is taking future thinking for Leadership Development to Europe's largest learning and development event, HRD 2008 at ExCel London. We will also be presenting a session on 'Navigating the Future: Leading in uncertain times' in the exhibition seminar programme.

Do pass on the word to any colleagues in HR or Training and Development who will be attending. We're in Stand 410 and would be happy to welcome your organisation.

October 2007

Obesity Scenarios launched!

The UK Government Foresight Directorate this week launched the output of its leading edge enquiry into the Future of Obesity to 2050. Outsights was delighted to support this project, developing a set of scenarios on the context of tackling obesity.

Working with leading scientists and policy experts, Outsights used the scenarios to produce a set of policy responses through a qualitative modelling exercise.

The project work, launched yesterday by Minister of State for Public Health Dawn Primarolo and Chief Scientist Sir David King, is available online. Direct links are below.

Tackling Obesities: Future Choices

Tackling Obesities: Future Choices – Visualising the Future: Scenarios to 2050

Tackling Obesities: Future Choices – Qualitative Modelling of Policy Options

September 2007

Globalisation's Five Flows

In our latest Outsights On series Alasdair Keith looks at the future of globalisation through its Five Flows - of Goods, Capital, People, Information and Services - and how any interruption of these flows might slow or reverse the onward path of globalisation. Read more on Outsights on the Five Flows of Globalisation.  Please do pass this on to colleagues you think will be interested in our research and publications.

Sigma Scan 'Robots' back in the news

The Sigma Scan is still making the news. ‘Robo-rights: Utopian dream or rise of the machines?’ – one of the 250 articles on future trends in the Scan – was recently picked up by French national newspaper Le Monde and Sign and Sight magazine. If you would like to find out how the Scan can provide insights for a business issue, please do contact us to discuss how we can tailor the information to your benefit.

Hot off the press! Outsights Associate Esther Eidinow has just published her book on how ancient Greeks used the future to manage risk. Exploring the beliefs and activities of this ancient culture can offer an intriguing perspective on modern attitudes to risk and future uncertainty. Oracles, Curses, and Risk Among the Ancient Greeks is available now on Amazon and all good bookshops.